The No. 2 Las Vegas Aces and No. 6 Indiana Fever open the best-of-five semi-finals in Las Vegas. The Fever won the regular season series two games to one, but the Aces stormed their way to the two-seed in the playoffs after finishing the regular season on a 16-game winning streak, while the Fever had to rally for playoff positioning.
June 22: Aces win 89-81 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
July 3: Fever win 81-54 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
July 24: Fever win 80-70 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
Before the two teams begin battling in Las Vegas, we turn to our Winsidr reporters, Owen Pence and Matt Cohen, with their thoughts on the series.
Series Schedule:
Game One: Michelob ULTRA Arena – 3:00 p.m. ET on September 21 (ABC)
Game Two: Michelob ULTRA Arena – 9:30 p.m. ET on September 23 (ESPN)
Game Three: Gainbridge Fieldhouse – 7:30 p.m. ET on September 26 (ESPN2)
Game Four: Gateway Center Arena – 3:00 p.m. ET on September 28 (ABC)*
Game Five: Michelob ULTRA Arena – TBD on September 30 (TBD)*
*If necessary
Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch:
Owen: Kelsey Mitchell vs. the Aces guards and wings
I assume Jackie Young will take on this primary assignment as the Aces’ best perimeter defender, but it’ll need to be a team effort to stop the likely First-Team All-WNBA guard. Mitchell’s quickness and ability to pull up on a dime and hit three makes her a near impossible guard. How Vegas is able to hold up when Indiana runs pick-and-roll and how effectively they’re able to handle screens to avoid mismatches will go a long way in determining the outcome of this series.
Matt: Aliyah Boston vs. A’ja Wilson
I know I chose Boston in my first-round matchup, but it’s hard to dismiss how good this one is going to be. It’s not entirely certain that these two will guard one another, but it is the most likely option, as these two can punish opposing defenders at will.
Both played important roles in their team’s opening round wins, with Wilson currently tops in the league in points per game (PPG) in the playoffs. With the stakes even higher, whichever player gains the advantage across these five games could prove vital to which team advances to the finals.
X-Factors:
Owen: NaLyssa Smith
I thought the Smith trade was a loss for Las Vegas, and I couldn’t have been more wrong. Smith has been phenomenal for them, but it’s worth noting that she wasn’t out there for long stretches of crunch time in the first round against Seattle. Did Becky Hammon just like a smaller lineup against the versatility of the Storm defense, or was there something in Smith’s play that Hammon didn’t want to expose to the highest leverage situations? Las Vegas’s best lineup is: A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, and Smith. That lineup will need to see the floor in the most important minutes for Vegas to advance to the Finals.
Matt: The Fever’s Balance Scoring
In their opening game of round one, Indiana had only two players score in double figures. In Game Two, that rose to three, and in their series-clinching win, it was five. The Fever are obviously going to need more than just Kelsey Mitchell’s scoring prowess, so whether Natasha Howard, Boston, Lexie Hull, or even Odyssey Sims (and her 16-point outburst in the clincher) balance the scoring load to keep the Aces on their toes defensively will be a key to the upset.
One Burning Question:
Owen: Which version of Jewell Loyd will the Aces be getting?
Loyd got the last laugh on her former team and has hit her stride in a major way since moving to the bench midway through the season. She still plays starter minutes, though, and will be on the floor in crunch time almost always for Las Vegas. In Game 3 against the Storm, she took just four shots in 29 minutes. That won’t cut it against Indiana, as Loyd (previously a plus defender earlier in her career) can’t contribute much else if she isn’t scoring the basketball.
Matt: Can the Fever’s perimeter defense stop the high-flying Aces’ attack?
Indiana’s perimeter defense came to life in the first round, holding Atlanta to 28.1 percent shooting from three in the series, second amongst playoff teams. With the Aces coming in shooting 40.0 percent from distance, second overall in the playoffs, can the Fever find the same defensive fortitude that brought them back in the first round to slow down the Aces’ offensive attack?
Bold Predictions:
Matt: Fever win the rebounding differential every game
One way to help the offense is rebounding offensive misses and keeping the Aces to one-and-done on the defensive end. The Fever are fourth in the playoffs in rebounding differential, while the Aces are second-to-last. It is a small sample size, to be sure, but something to watch for. If the Fever can win the rebounding battle each game, it will set them up for greater success offensively and will eliminate the time they need to spend defending. That equation typically results in more wins, and the Fever have the tools to achieve that.
Owen: Aces win in four games
All my predictions are tepid. Sue me. I like Aces in four. Indiana is good enough to win at least one game, and with two All-WNBA players on its roster in Boston and Mitchell, they could force the series to five. Ultimately, Las Vegas controls its destiny. A’ja Wilson is the best player in the world, Jackie Young herself has a First Team All-WNBA case, Chelsea Gray is playing inspired ball on both ends, and though Fever coach Stephanie White has been phenomenal, you’ll take Becky Hammon every day of the week. In the interest of being bold, I’ll run back my incorrect prediction from round one: Young will record a triple-double in the series.
Matt: Fever wins the series in five
I was one of the few people who said the Caitlin Clark-less Fever could beat the Dream, so I’m going to double down on that bet. No disrespect to Atlanta, but they are not the Aces, a mature, talented, incredibly playoff-tested team. If down 1-0 or 2-1, Vegas will not be rattled, and Indiana will need everything they have to win three games, especially without home-court advantage to start.
This team learned a lot about itself in that first round. Without their star and down 1-0, they won the must-haves, including the series clincher on the road. At this point, they’re playing with the proverbial house money, and while this will not be easy, nor can they afford compounding mistakes they can fall victim to, there are avenues for the Fever to win this series. Defense, timely shooting, and playing with that devil-may-care approach might just get this done.
Stats through the first round of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs. Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of ESPN.com and Her Hoop Stats.
