The Phoenix Mercury (27-17) officially clinched the 4 seed ahead of the 2025 WNBA playoffs, securing a first round matchup against the 5 seed New York Liberty (27-17). Phoenix holds the regular season edge over New York, having beaten the defending champions three times over their four total contests.
Now, the teams are set to clash with much higher stakes involved, and with the Mercury holding home court advantage.
Series schedule:
Game 1 (@PHX): Sunday, September 14, 5:00 PM ET (ESPN)
Game 2 (@NY): Wednesday, September 17, 8:00 PM ET (ESPN)
Game 3 (@PHX, if necessary): Friday, September 19, 10:00 PM ET (ESPN2)
Matchups we can’t wait to watch:
Candace: Kahleah Copper has been a huge factor in the Mercury’s wins over the Liberty this season. Her matchup against Leonie Fiebich, one of the better defenders against her, is certainly one to keep an eye on. When she’s not matched up with Fiebich, one of New York’s lengthier players able to defend the perimeter, it’s a nightmare for the Liberty to try to contain her in the pick and pop with Satou Sabally, Natasha Mack, or Kalani Brown.
Fiebich’s minutes matched Copper’s pretty closely in the Mercury’s last game against the Liberty on August 30, but it didn’t mean much – Copper still went off for 22 points on a whopping 50 percent three-point shooting night on 10 total attempts from deep. Fiebich’s ability to navigate screens is going to be huge for containing Copper, and by extension, Phoenix’s formidable three-point shooting. Copper managed to also hold opponents to just 29.6 percent shooting from three, so her perimeter defense is sure to be a nuisance for Fiebich on the other end of the floor.
These two lengthy three-point threats are sure to give one another fits, but Copper has shown that she’s owned the matchup over the last few contests featuring Fiebich against her.
Myles: How will the Liberty slow Alyssa Thomas? In the four regular-season head-to-heads, Thomas reinforced her nickname as the engine of Phoenix’s offense, compiling near-triple-double averages of 17.3 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game, and 9.8 assists per game. For a New York team that has struggled with its defensive communication all season long, in part due to lineup inconsistency, Thomas provides the ultimate challenge. In particular, her DHO usage has flummoxed the Liberty, who are often a step late to close out on the Mercury’s ever-ready shooters. She also created havoc as a break starter, so the Liberty will need to quickly tag assignments in transition and keep an eye on those shooters; Thomas loves to drop off passes for trail threes.
If New York can glean any positives from the regular season matchups, it’s that in the one game they started and finished with their big three, they flipped an early double-digit deficit into a 13-point victory, “limiting” Thomas to 20, 13, and 8, though none of those dimes came off high-elbow handoffs. Worth noting, the Liberty switched a ton in that matchup, and they have cut that down in recent games. Ideally, Jonquel Jones draws that primary assignment, allowing Breanna Stewart to alternate between Satou Sabally and roaming off Natasha Mack, so she can fly around and use her seven-foot wingspan as second-side help. Either way, if Thomas controls and dictates the action,
X-Factors:
Myles: Okay, this is not going to be a revolutionary take, but the Liberty’s X-Factor is going to need to be 2019 Finals MVP Emma Meesseman. When she agreed to join New York midseason, she understood that it would likely mean a reserve role. With poor injury luck causing a revolving door of availability for her seafoam teammates, Meesseman found herself on court as a starter for 12 of her 17 regular season games. With all five starters once again healthy (everyone reading, please go knock on wood before continuing on), she’s once again slated to come off the bench.
This is the vision: having two of the three of Jones, Stewart, and Meesseman on the court at any given time. (Some – many! – have clamored for the three-big lineup, but I personally don’t see that as being particularly advantageous in this first-round matchup, with the way Nate Tibbetts designs his offensive sets with movement and consistent strong-side shooting, along with all that AT talk above about how effective she is as a shot creator.)
What Meesseman brings to the Liberty is a premier offensive threat from anywhere on the floor, and the fact that she’s lurking behind a future Hall of Fame frontcourt means that the Mercury will be forced to counter by extending their own big rotations. And it’s got to be somebody who can stretch and defend, because Meesseman has knocked down 50.6 percent of her jump shots, including two thirds (14 of 21!) of her threes.
“It’s just basketball,” she often tells Liberty media in scrums, when asked about the movement she’s seeing or generating on the court. She looks to make the game simple. Meesseman has displayed her vision time and again, with big-to-big passing or well-timed feeds to cutters. Defensively, New York has to be wary of her being put into the actions too frequently, but sharing the court with tenacious perimeter defenders like Natasha Cloud, Fiebich, and Gardner should help her to stay attached.
Candace: While Copper and her health are a huge storyline as to Phoenix’s continued growth and success as a contender, the truest X-Factor will be a name that’s far less known if you’re not a literal member of the X-Factor: Monique Akoa Makani. The rookie guard has been a silent assassin for the Mercury this season, providing durable play and averaging about 40 percent from three-point range for the team off the bench this year.
Aside from her being a three-point shooting threat, she’s also got a silky midrange jumper that can be a matchup nightmare for Sabrina Ionescu or Rebekah Gardner in space.
She has seen her usage slip in recent months, as she’s tumbled from about 23 minutes per game in August to just under 20 minutes in five games throughout September. As a result, her shot attempts have gone down. But, she’s been looking better as a playmaker for Phoenix at 3.5 assists per game in September, so if her three-pointer can find its way back home by the time Game 1 rolls around, the Mercury would suddenly be holstering a scary threat to the Liberty’s bogged down bench.
Bold predictions:
Candace: Phoenix hasn’t advanced past the first round of the postseason since 2021, when New York’s head coach Sandy Brondello was at the helm for the Mercury and they bested the Liberty by a point in a single-elimination game. This year, behind a huge Game 3 performance from Satou Sabally, the Mercury will topple the defending champions at home and get into the semifinals. It will, much like the 2024 Finals, be a dramatic win, though.
Myles: Well, we can’t agree, that’s no fun. So I’ll say New York in three. Both teams hold serve in Games 1 and 2 in somewhat comfortable fashion, before both teams buckle down for Game 3 and, behind a Stewart second-half takeover, the Liberty advance.
