One of the most intriguing first round matchups of the WNBA playoffs is between the third-seed Las Vegas Aces and the sixth-seed Indiana Fever.
In the regular season, the Fever won two out of three games in the season series between the two teams.
- July 5: Fever win 84-68 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
- July 12: Fever win 109-75 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV
- August 6: Aces win 86-84 in overtime at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
Series Schedule:
- Game One: Michelob ULTRA Arena — 4 p.m. ET on Sept. 27 (ABC)
- Game Two: Gainbridge Fieldhouse — 6:30 p.m. ET on Sept. 29 (Prime Video)
- Game Three (if necessary): Michelob ULTRA Arena — TBD on Oct. 1 (TBD)
Matchups to Watch:
One matchup to watch for is the dueling performances from both offenses. In the regular season, the Aces and Fever were the top two teams in points per game (PPG), offensive rating (ORTG) and field goal percentage.
- Fever: 96.0 PPG, 115.0 ORTG, 48.7 percent from the field (all first in the league)
- Aces: 91.5 PPG, 112.9 ORTG, 48.6 percent from the field (all second in the league)
Indiana also finished first in the league in three-point percentage (38.6 percent), while Las Vegas finished third in three-point percentage (36.2 percent).
In the regular-season series, Las Vegas averaged only 76.3 PPG (the lowest by a team against Indiana in 2026), shot 40 percent from the field and 22.4 percent from three-point range. With a team in the Fever that averaged 92.3 points and shot 48.3 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from three-point range against them, the Aces need to have really good shooting games to at least stay with the Fever.
Another matchup of intrigue is the battle of the frontcourts. The superstar names in the frontcourts are A’ja Wilson and Aliyah Boston, both players who averaged double-doubles in the regular-season series. In the two games she played in the series, Wilson averaged 23.0 PPG, 12.5 rebounds per game (RPG) and 2.0 blocks per game (BPG), but shot only 39.6 percent from the field. Meanwhile, Boston averaged 19.3 PPG, 11.0 RPG and shot 59.5 percent from the field in the three games she played. It’s always must-see television when Wilson and Boston go up against each other in the interior.
A key note for this series is that NaLyssa Smith will not play due to a season-ending knee injury that she suffered right before the FIBA World Cup break. Against the Fever this season, Smith averaged 10.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG and shot 53.8 percent from the field. Her impact will be missed, so Las Vegas has to get quality frontcourt production outside of Wilson. Indiana has to get the same thing alongside Boston, notably from Makayla Timpson.
X-Factors:
Look for Las Vegas’ bench to be an x-factor in this series. After Smith went down with her injury, Brianna Turner was inserted into the starting lineup for the Aces’ final five regular-season games. Let’s not also forget that in July, the Aces waived Chennedy Carter, who was a frontrunner for the Sixth Player of the Year award before her departure. So, with two players who were important contributors at the start of the season gone, the team needs quality bench production to complement the starting lineup.
Players who can help put pressure on the Fever include Jewell Loyd and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus. Loyd only averaged 8.0 PPG this season, which is the lowest scoring average of her career. But, she is still capable of being the high-level bucket-getter that people saw play for the Seattle Storm for many years, especially after her 25-point performance in the Aces’ final regular season game of 2026. Parker-Tyus averaged 5.4 PPG and 2.9 RPG this season, but had a handful of really good performances throughout the season. Her activity can really help out Turner and Wilson in making up the team’s frontcourt production.
For Indiana, the offensive performance of Lexie Hull is going to be an x-factor. In the regular season, Hull averaged 5.2 PPG and shot 33.7 percent from the three-point line. However, in the regular-season series against the Aces, Hull only averaged 3.7 PPG, which included scoring just one point in one meeting and going scoreless in another one. Her hustle and defensive tenacity are always expected to be present on the court, but can she provide more scoring or outside shooting? She is certainly a capable shooter, and any success from the three-point line would alleviate some pressure from Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell needing to provide so much three-point shooting among Indiana’s starting lineup. Hull being assertive in trying to score on drives or open shot opportunities would benefit the Fever, making the team’s offense even more dangerous.
Bold Predictions:
The first bold prediction is that the series will go to three games, and Las Vegas will win the series in three games. There will be a game in which the Aces miss Smith’s presence on the court and Indiana exploits that to pick up a win. But, the championship pedigree and chemistry between Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young will shine brightly and push the Aces into the semifinals.
And, the second prediction: Wilson and Mitchell will each average at least 25.0 PPG in the series for their respective teams. Last year, when Las Vegas and Indiana played each other in the semifinals, Wilson averaged 24.0 PPG and Mitchell averaged 21.6 PPG in the five-game series. Those two can top their scoring performances for this series, given the matchup and urgency of a best-of-three series.
Stats as of Sept. 25. Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
