Any championship contending team knows you can’t always buy your way to a championship—there just isn’t enough money to make that happen. All teams know that the best rosters are structured with a blend of higher salaried star power with team-friendly contracts from drafted players. The draft offers teams an opportunity to find excellent players for much cheaper than they’d find on the open market, and the best front offices have the scouts to identify and secure talent in the draft. Because so few players actually make rosters, the pressure to maximize value on each pick—no matter where it comes in the draft—is significant, making the marginal value of each pick higher than one would expect. To be sure, plenty of teams punt the draft from time to time, especially if it comes with the possibility of adding proven talent elsewhere, but finding value in the draft is one of the most important jobs a front office has. So which teams have been the best and worst at doing that over the past decade?
I pored through a plethora of data to paint a broader picture of what each team has done since 2014. I decided the best way to evaluate the talent was to use Inpredictable’s kitchen sink wins probability added (kWPA) statistic I used in my playoff depth versus star power article. To refresh your memories, this stat incorporates all counting stats on the court and measures the win probability of each player. While the statistic is limiting to a degree, it gave me the cleanest way to see the value a player adds on the court in terms of wins added.
The caveats before we dive in:
I understand it is too early to truly evaluate the 2020-2023 drafts, but I included them mostly for context and to help complete the picture. I weighed them into my rankings less than what I saw from the 2014-2019 drafts. I am also only including the first two rounds of each draft since it’s incredibly unlikely a third rounder will make a roster.
I recognize too that front offices change hands, including scouting departments, so those changes will be acknowledged, but for the fun of the exercise, I’m still evaluating the whole of the organization over the decade despite the personnel changes.
It’s also important to note the differing number of games per season of the past decade. I recognize that has also shaped the data, as the more recent draftees will have had more opportunities to perform better (but also the same opportunity to perform poorly).
Also, I didn’t just take the kWPA into consideration. To help offset the disparities between the teams that consistently drafted near the top of the draft versus the bottom, I decided to focus on the average kWPA for the past ten drafts’ draft slots and see how much above the average the kWPA was for a particular player. In other words, I’m evaluating how much more value a player added to their drafting team than the average of the players selected at that draft slot during the past decade. I called this kwpaAA or the kWPA value above average.
All of the numbers only take into account the regular season because the playoffs are not an equal opportunity experience.
The last thing is that all players’ numbers factor into the original drafting team. The scouting department does not trade the picks, so they aren’t responsible for who isn’t still on the team.
Note: The average draft position and kwpaAA% have been rounded to the nearest tenth for clarity.
12. Los Angeles Sparks
GM Changes — Penny Toler (2000-2019), Derek Fisher (2021-2022), Karen Bryant (2023)
Zero lottery picks doesn’t necessarily make or break a team’s draft, but it does force the team to find value in harder-to-spot places. For a team like the Sparks, any high marks the team has are quality selections coming later in the draft due to having the third-lowest average draft position in the league. Part of this is that they were really good over the past decade; the Sparks were a playoff team from 2014-2020, including a championship in 2016 and a loss in the finals in 2017.
We can’t expect franchise-altering talent at these draft slots, but some quality depth and work around the edges should be the scouting team’s expectations. They hit with one of their first rounders in Jonquel Jones in 2016. Give them credit too for finding Marina Mabrey and, to a lesser extent at this point, Olivia Nelson-Ododa late in the second round in 2019 and 2022, respectively. Other than those selections, not much else has gone well in the draft department. Their kwpaAA%, or the percentage of a team’s picks that have higher value than the average of their draft slots, is at the bottom of the league at 24.0 percent, meaning less than a fourth of their selections have fared better than their draft slot counterparts. Their average kwpaAA is poor and so is their average kWPA.
Considering they’ve had the fifth-most draft picks, they should have more to show for it, despite their later draft positioning. Recent drafts haven’t shown much promise just yet, but perhaps they will help change the Sparks’ ranking down the road.
Best Pick — Jonquel Jones (2016 first round, sixth selection. 34.6 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2016 (Jones)
11. Chicago Sky
GM Changes — Pokey Chatman (2011-2016), Amber Stocks (2017-2018), James Wade (2019-2023), Jeff Pagliocca (2023-Present)*
*excluded Emre Vatansever in 2023 because he did not oversee a draft
Chicago has had limited picks the past decade with the fourth fewest thanks to plenty of wheeling and dealing in years past. Out of their four kwpaAA players, Cheyenne Parker has become an underrated big, and the New York Liberty’s Betnijah Laney has provided solid, if inconsistent, depth for them and was found in the middle of the second round. Diamond DeShields has had an up-and-down career to this point. Outside of that, the Sky don’t have much else to show for their troubles.
Their kwpaAA% is tied with the Sparks for worst in the league, and despite having decent enough draft position, the Sky haven’t done anything with it. This is a team that will hopefully benefit from some fresh leadership in their front office.
Best Pick — Betnijah Laney (2015 second round, fifth selection. 29.8 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2015 (Parker and Laney)
10. Indiana Fever
GM Changes — Kelly Krauskopf (2004-2016), Pokey Chatman (2018-2019), Tamika Catchings (2019-2022), Lin Dunn (2022-Present)
The Indiana Fever are only second to Tulsa/Dallas in number of lottery picks and total picks. In short, the team has been much better at finding value in the first round than second.
In the first round, they’ve taken Kelsey and Tiffany Mitchell, Teaira McCowan, and Natasha Howard, all strong contributors. Even later first rounders like Victoria Vivians and Natalie Achonwa have produced in their careers. However, only two of the Fever’s 12 second rounders have been positive kWPA players, and one of those, Erica McCall, is a small positive at 5.4.
The Fever are only eighth in average kwpaAA, which shows this is a team that’s more quantity than quality when it comes to drafting. Considering the amount of picks they’ve had, the 46.0 percent kwpaAA% isn’t too shocking. And the Fever have 2023 first-overall pick Aliyah Boston, 2022 second-overall pick NaLyssa Smith, and 2023 seventh-overall pick Grace Berger as players who are likely to become positive kpwaAA players soon. However, you can’t get a ton of credit for drafting the player you’re supposed to draft, and the players that have positive value aren’t exceeding it by that much (only eighth as a team in that department).
Best Pick — Natasha Howard (2014 first round, fifth selection. 34.2 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2018 (Kelsey Mitchell and Vivians)
9. San Antonio Stars/Las Vegas Aces
GM Changes — Dan Hughes (2005-2015), Ruth Riley (2016-2017), Bill Laimbeer (2018), Dan Padover (2019-2021), Natalie Williams (2022-Present)
The past decade has been a tale of two halves for this franchise. Early in the decade, it was drafting early, with A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young being their two number one choices in back-to-back years in 2018 and 2019. But now, the Aces are consistently great, with back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023 to show for it. Lately, they’ve shuffled picks out to remain good, and it has left their draft cupboard dry, having the fewest picks of any team in the past decade. Much like Indiana, hitting on near no-doubters in Wilson and Young doesn’t get you credit when you do what you’re supposed to do, and Kayla McBride was an expected lotto pick as well when they selected her third in 2014. Additionally, Moriah Jefferson second overall in 2016 has had a solid career and is producing solidly above the average at the draft spot. Drafting Dearica Hamby later in the first in 2015 was a pleasant surprise, though, and with so many later-round picks of late, we can excuse their 38.0 percent kwpaAA% because not much was expected of those players.
Still, it’s challenging to give them a high grade when there really isn’t much else to show for their drafting other than their home run lottery selections. We also can’t grade them too harshly for being as good as they have been, so this is where they lie.
Best Pick — Kayla McBride (2014 first round, third selection. 47.3 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2014 (McBride and Astou Ndour)
8. Phoenix Mercury
GM Changes — Jim Pitman (2013-2023), Nick U’Ren (2023-Present)
Over the past decade, the Mercury have had the second fewest picks and zero lottery picks. Much like the Sparks, this is a result of being really good, having made the playoffs every year from 2014-2022. Due to that, they are tied for last in average draft selection. Pretty hard to make hay when you’re drafting that late consistently, right? Not entirely so for the Mercury.
Their best work has been done in the middle of the two rounds—end of the first, beginning of the second. They drafted Isabelle Harrison twelfth overall in 2015, Courtney Williams eighth overall in 2016, and Alanna Smith eighth along with Sophie Cunningham 13th in 2019. These are all quality role players but not star-studded talent either. That’s not the team’s fault for being good, and they can only draft what’s right in front of them. Nothing especially great, but nothing awful here either.
Best Pick — Courtney Williams (2016 first round, eighth selection. 44.8 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — Either 2016 (Williams) or 2019 (Smith and Cunningham)
7. Atlanta Dream
GM Changes — Angela Taylor (2014-2026), Chris Sienko (2017-2020), Dan Padover (2021-Present)
With the third-most picks and lottery picks, the Dream have had a lot of chances to build a contender. Of those four lottery picks, which includes one first overall, they’ve had some pretty solid success. After a trade with the Washington Mystics, the Dream also selected Rhyne Howard first overall in 2022, who is likely to become a strong kwpaAA value player as well. But again, you don’t get much credit for doing it right, so where else have they succeeded?
Their other lotto pick has panned out, as Aari McDonald third overall in 2021 is turning into a quality player. Additionally, Brianna Turner at the back end of the first round in 2019 along with Monique Billings, Naz Hillmon, and even Kristy Wallace early in the second in 2018, 2022, and 2018, respectively, show that Atlanta can find quality depth pieces through the draft. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Brittney Sykes, drafted seventh overall in 2017, who just finished a career year in Washington.
Howard, Hillmon, and McDonald are each nearly eclipsing their draft slot kWPA averages. Atlanta has shown an ability to find talent throughout the draft, but what knocks the Dream down is their average kwpaAA. It’s last in the league, which tells me that while their selections are valuable, they are not nearly as high above their draft slots value wise as expected. The Dream have found talent, but nothing points to them identifying steals over the past 10 years.
Best Pick — Brittney Sykes (2017 first round, seventh selection. 26.6 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2017 (Plum and Sykes)
6. Connecticut Sun
GM Changes — Chris Sienko (2003-2016), Curt Miller (2016-2022), Darius Taylor (2023-Present)
Like Chicago, the Sun have had limited picks due to trades, but unlike Chicago, they’ve also routinely drafted later than a chunk of the league. For the most part, they’ve either drafted early or late and have only had one first rounder in the past four drafts. The Sun’s only first overall was selecting Chiney Ogwumike in the 2014 draft, who’s become a fine, if unspectacular player with her sister in LA. Given the top overall pedigree, that pick is assuredly a miss, as Ogwumike’s 33.3 kWPA is lower than the average for that draft slot. Routinely only having one pick between these two rounds due to being consistently good would seemingly leave Connecticut in a bad way, but the Sun have made due with what they’ve had. The triad of Chelsea Gray 10 picks after Ogwumike in that 2014 draft, Elizabeth Williams fourth overall in 2015, and Brionna Jones eighth overall in 2017 has positioned the Sun well compared to their counterparts. They’ve also been decent around the edges, taking quality depth players in Lexie Brown, DiJonai Carrington, Bridget Carleton, and Kaila Charles over the years, all of whom have outperformed their draft slots with positive kwpaAA value.
However, only Gray has been a true above-average-value stud of the bunch to this point, so while the Sun get high marks for routinely finding value, they are still middle-of-the-pack drafters compared to some of their other counterparts.
Best Pick — Chelsea Gray (2014 first round, eleventh selection. 65.2 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2014 (Chiney Ogwumike and Gray)
5. Seattle Storm
GM Changes — Brian Agler (2011-2014), Alisha Valavanis (2015-2021), Talisa Rhea (2021-Present)
The Seattle Storm are no exception to the rule—you don’t get props for top overall picks being legendary. But we should at least acknowledge the greatness of Jewell Loyd and Breanna Stewart, tops overall in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Much like is the case in Vegas, these two were homegrown talents who helped the team win a couple of championships in 2018 and 2020. The Storm, like other perennial contenders over the decade, have been behind the proverbial eight-ball draft wise due to their success. Nevertheless, they are first in average kWPA per team because of Loyd and Stewart as well as Jordin Canada as the 2018 fifth overall selection, so that trio is likely the strongest among any top-three picks of any team.
Additionally, the Storm have had the fifth-most picks with the fourth-lowest average draft position. Canada, Bria Hartley, Ezi Magbegor are all quality players, but Loyd and Stewie skew a lot of the results for this team. Quality enough at what they do each draft, including some potential for their most recent one, but it’s hard to truly move the Storm up when the aforementioned legendary top overall selections prevent us from seeing what’s under the hood.
Best Pick — Breanna Stewart (2016 first round, first overall selection. 47.3 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2016 for Stewie alone, but 2023 has some potential to be a quality draft as well
4. Tulsa Shock/Dallas Wings
GM Changes — Fred Williams (2014-2015), Greg Bibb (2016-Present)
Okay, this is where things get interesting. Tulsa/Dallas had the most picks of any team in the past decade, averaging nearly three per draft. With the Shock’s/Wings’ draft heap, they’ve also had the most lottery selections and the best average draft position, so because they’ve basically done their work to a degree, they can’t receive the best grade. However, they found some fine enough talent later in Dana Evans (first pick of the second round in 2021), Megan Gustafson (fifth pick of the second round in 2019), and Kennedy Burke (tenth pick of the second round in 2019), even if Burke is essentially out of the league now.
What’s really interesting is that in the past decade, the franchise hasn’t had one top overall selection. With that in mind, they have done yeoman’s work across the first round in finding value in talented players. That’s demonstrated by having the second-highest kwpaAA in first and second rounds, showing that they can hit on a good number of their selections. A player like Odyssey Sims, drafted back in the Shock days, has offered great value at her draft slot, and Azurá Stevens, Arike Ogunbowale, Aerial Powers, Allisha Gray, Satou Sabally, Tyasha Harris, and Awak Kuier have provided varying degrees of strong and growing value at their draft positions.
To be sure, Dallas hasn’t hit on all of its picks, and the organization is only 11th in terms of average kwpaAA, so the Wings are basically just making the right call on draft slot’s value 50.0 percent of the time. Not great, but it also isn’t super easy to do. Harris, Veronica Burton, and Stevens are all expected to be kwpaAA players relative to their draft slots in short order too.
Best Pick — Odyssey Sims (2014 first round, second overall selection. 33.8 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2020 (Sabally, Bella Alarie, Harris)
3. Minnesota Lynx
GM Changes — Roger Griffith (2003-2017), Cheryl Reeve (2018-2022), Clare Duwelius (2022-Present)
Another team falling victim to being good much of the past decade, the Minnesota Lynx have made the playoffs every year except 2022 with two championships to show for it. As a result, they haven’t had a ton of first rounders—seven, second fewest in the league. Moreover, they’ve only had a single lottery pick, which came in last season’s draft.
While they certainly cleaned up getting franchise cornerstone Napheesa Collier sixth in the 2019 draft (Phee has the second-highest kWPA in her first round draft class to this point), much of the Lynx’s damage has come in the second round. With a league-leading five second rounders with plus kwpaAA value, Minnesota has done their work especially well by selecting quality players when they aren’t expected to be found, even if they aren’t franchise-altering players. Second rounders like Reshanda Gray, Jessica Shepard, Natisha Hiedeman, and Crystal Dangerfield have all made their marks in the league.
Lastly, Dorka Juhász, last season’s steal of the draft at 16th overall, showed out in her first season alongside second-overall selection Diamond Miller. It is far too soon to evaluate them just yet, but the future is bright for those two draftees.
Best Pick — Natisha Hiedeman (2019 second round, sixth selection. 17.2 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2019 (Collier, Shepard, Hiedeman)
2. New York Liberty
GM Changes — Bill Laimbeer (2013-2015, 2017), Kristin Bernert (2015-2016), Jonathan Kolb (2019-Present)
The New York Liberty have been quietly very solid drafters for some time. Obviously, they did their work with their own first-overall selection in Sabrina Ionescu, but as usual, that’s not where the credit lies. You may have forgotten that the Liberty also drafted Alyssa Thomas (yes, that Alyssa Thomas) fourth in the 2014 draft. More to the point, the Liberty have found high-quality, rotational players beyond her. Players like Brittany Boyd-Jones, Kia Nurse, Kiah Stokes, Lindsay Allen, Mercedes Russell, and Han Xu have all been positive kwpaAA players, providing excellent value from their late first- and second-round selections.
The Liberty are third in average kwpaAA for a reason, and while their drafting of late hasn’t been especially great post-Sabrina (perhaps why they’re second on this list), they are second in kwpaAA players before 2020. That level of consistency in kwpaAA picks from picking late first and second rounds is what’s given the Liberty an incredibly high ranking on this list.
Best Pick — Alyssa Thomas (2014 first round, fourth overall selection. 57.3 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — Either 2014 (Thomas) or 2015 (Boyd-Jones and Stokes)
1. Washington Mystics
GM Changes — None; Mike Thibault (2013-Present)
Who else would it be, right? The royalty of consistency, the Mike Thibault Way has been entrenched in the nation’s capital for over a decade. Mike only recently ended his split head coach/GM duties to focus exclusively on the GM role. While a GM tenure of this magnitude isn’t a guarantee for the top spot, let’s also remember that jobs in sports are notoriously volatile, and if you look above at the level of front office rotation in the other league’s cities, you have to be doing something right to remain at the helm for that long.
Well, the Mystics have done exactly that, finding value nearly everywhere they’ve looked. Only two lottery picks means the majority of their work has had to come later in the draft. Thibault is an infamous pick dealer if he sniffs a chance to get better talent elsewhere, so their meager 15 draft picks should come as no surprise.
Despite that, they’ve made some incredible work of the limited resources they’ve had. Starting with Stefanie Dolson at the six in 2014, the Mystics have drafted Natasha Cloud in the second round in 2015, Kahleah Copper seventh overall in 2016, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough sixth overall in 2017, Ariel Atkins seventh and Myisha Hines-Allen in the second round in 2018, closing with Shakira Austin third overall in 2022. That’s some fantastic work done by the organization, with nearly all of them providing tremendous value at their draft slots. It’s no wonder the team hits on 47.0 percent of their picks in terms of above average value. Their average kwpaAA is also second, meaning this team doesn’t just find value but finds so much value that it’s astonishing no one else could see it.
The Mystics earn the top spot for their meticulous attention to detail and their scouting team spotting players that have earned immense positive value above their draft selection. This isn’t even to mention the potential of Austin, who—despite being out recovering from a torn labrum right now—is already one of the best posts in the league and will surely continue to blossom.
Much like the Tampa Bay Rays in MLB and the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL, if Mike Thibault comes calling for a trade, your best move is to simply hang up the phone.
Best Pick — Natasha Cloud (2015 second round, third selection. 49.6 kwpaAA)
Best Draft — 2018 (Atkins and Hines-Allen)
All stats through 2023 season. Data visual template courtesy of Datawrapper. All other biographical info from WNBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.